EEMA charges a fee of 0.48 percent. For us, it remains too early to rotate into oversold value plays such as banks or airlines, and we prefer ‘quality-defensive’ companies with plenty of cash and short supply chains. Way to play it with ETFs: Balchunas points to Pacer Developed Markets International Cash Cows 100 ETF (ICOW). On the demand side, the energy industry will not thrive in a recession. But technology doesn’t fare well in that scenario, either. In these environments, investors sell gold as they’re unwilling to forego the opportunity cost of lost income. Our models show an increased risk of U.S. recession in 2020, confirmed by credit yields starting to rise even as Treasury yields are falling. Our model of U.S. gross domestic product is decelerating sharply, and U.S. CEO confidence is as low as in the credit crunch. What’s more, bank stocks can outperform even when interest rates are low. It serves up nearly 2,000 stocks across several countries, with China the largest weighting at about 24 percent of assets. While U.S. households never quite regained the housing-induced elation of the aught years, consumption continues to support not only the U.S. economy, but the global one as well. There are times to stretch and take more risk, and there are times when discretion is the better part of valor. The ETF with the most exposure to health care is the Global X China Consumer ETF (CHIQ), which has about 8.7 percent of its assets in the sector. With disciplined lending, ultra-cost efficiency and savvy technology spending, these well-capitalized banks should have a rosy future. At these bargain valuations, misery is already priced in. In a Covid-19-induced recession, outsourcing becomes an imperative. Why so cautious? Meanwhile, faced with a tight time frame to negotiate future trade arrangements with the European Union, we may end up with a Brexit that looks more like “no deal” than a comprehensive free-trade arrangement. This growth has been underpinned both by favorable domestic drivers such as demographics, consumption and infrastructure as well as a steady improvement in economic freedom and policy variables. Johnson’s hard line on Brexit had remained a considerable risk up until the Dec. 12 election. The Citi European Economic Surprise Index is close to flat. Faster earnings growth. The global economy looks close to a cyclical peak. Of the roughly $240 billion of currency in circulation, the government has recently made 86 percent of that currency illegal. Recent economic data, however, have been modestly stronger, and investors are, once again, entertaining visions of tax cuts. Way to play it with ETFs:The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) is high-quality energy. Aided by technological improvements, producers have exceeded even their own expectations. There might even be scope for U.S. banks to bounce if bond yields head back to 2.8 percent and oil prices firm up. Lower gas prices fueled an energy shock as oil investment and profits collapsed and petrodollar liquidity stalled. It fell about 1.8%. Energy makes up less than 6% of the MSCI All Country World Index and returned only 14% last year versus 27% for the Index. The ETF fell 4.5 percent in the second quarter. Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: The SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) and SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) both rose 9.8%. CBC Radio's The Current is a meeting place of perspectives with a fresh take on issues that affect Canadians today. The better-capitalized integrated oil and gas majors may also benefit, since they have the cash flow and technological capabilities to diversify their portfolios away from fossil fuels. Digital Journal is a digital media news network with thousands of Digital Journalists in 200 countries around the world. Case: Stainless steel case with black PVD coating; Movement: Quartz It has $249 million in assets and a fee of 0.65%.Â. We suggest buying very long-dated bonds—all the way up to the 30-year—with yields close to 3.4 percent, since even the hawks don’t expect more than four rate rises in the coming year. It also suggests that investors consider overweighting U.S. consumer discretionary companies in 2020. ] Going forward I would stick with two of these themes: cyclicals and value. How to play it with ETFs: Balchunas points to the VanEck Vectors J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (EMLC), which is one of the most popular emerging market debt ETFs that is denominated in the local currencies. More to the point, following a disastrous period during the financial crisis, preferred stock has become a much less volatile asset class, currently offering the most attractive ratio of yield to volatility of the yield-oriented plays. The ETF was virtually flat in the first quarter, down 0.1 percent. The expense ratio is 0.64%. Local restaurant owners might be thrilled to have $10,000 in exchange for a stake in future profits. Latest News: Get all the latest India news, ipo, bse, business news, commodity, sensex nifty, politics news with ease and comfort any time anywhere only on Moneycontrol. For example, the percent of IPOs of companies with negative earnings in the past year exceeds the late 1990s technology bubble highs. When U.S. new orders fall as they have recently, real yields tend to fall. That resumption, along with a revival in buybacks, should reward shareholders for their patience. This allows manufacturers to respond quickly to changing market dynamics with minimal disruption to production and make the entire value chain more efficient. The industry has expanded at a pace slightly above global real GDP growth over the past several years, reaching total revenue of approximately $160 billion in 2019. This implicit easing in monetary conditions, combined with the S&P 500 moving into “oversold” territory in December, provides some scope for a short-term bounce in U.S. equities. [S&P Global Ratings and MSCI Inc. are reclassifying a number of stocks previously in the technology, telecom and media sectors, and including some of them in a new communications-services group.]. The Fed is on hold, real interest rates are stable and, most important, the dollar appears contained, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) stuck in a range for the past six months. Top holdings Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., and Schlumberger Ltd. make up more than 40 percent of the portfolio. But increasingly, the markets have taken the view that the Fed will change course through 2019. U.S. preferred stock is currently yielding about 5.50 percent. That means U.S. high-yield debt will likely struggle, as will the banking sectors and currencies of highly indebted economies such as Canada, Australia and Sweden, which may unsettle markets more generally. [Preferred shares are sort of a stock and bond hybrid; they generally pay a fixed dividend and put you ahead of common-stock holders in cashing in shares if the company's assets are liquidated.]. The rally is part payback following years of underperformance and partly a reaction to the best growth in decades. However, today the more speculative parts of value are stalling. Not only has this meant pressure on developed markets, it’s also signaled that global liquidity conditions are tightening rather than easing. Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: iShares U.S. Infrastructure ETF (IFRA) rose 1% for the quarter. That said, given cheap valuations, a still-resilient economy and a stable dollar, emerging markets may represent one of the more interesting opportunities in 2018. With rising disposable income per capita, China’s demand for health care, especially top-tier hospital services, exceeds supply. If earnings-per-share growth is 5 percent to 6 percent, as our models suggest, rather the consensus of 13 percent, oversold defensive sectors such as consumer staples and health care may outperform. India is a large, domestically oriented economy that is relatively insulated from many of the more macro risks that often derail other segments of the emerging-market universe. At present, the perception that the Fed and ECB will continue to act to support equities has become pervasive. PCH offers fun quizzes on a wide range of topics. A state-of-the-art automotive plant, for example, uses industrial automation technologies to design the optimal robotics path to boost weld quality and productivity. Preferred Stock ETF (PFF) as a way to play Koesterich’s preference for preferred stock in last quarter’s writeup. Smart self-help moves by senior managements of these companies have led to a reduction in capital expenditures and operating costs. It is not allowed to post promotional messages, links to external sites, or references to activities not related to this blog. The $190 million fund has an expense ratio of 0.60%. Although these scenarios point to several short, sharp rallies in coming months, the trend will probably be for continued market volatility and stress. Given a synchronized global recovery and still-easy financial conditions, 2018 is likely to be another year in which stocks beat bonds. Three-player telecom markets, in which competitors typically don’t engage in devastating price wars, often have stable participants generating reliable streams of cash. Companies rewarding shareholders by returning capital, through dividends and share repurchases, are less likely than growth-oriented peers to squander shareholder capital through overpriced acquisitions. Many telecom companies have learned that stability is one of their most attractive characteristics. Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: Balchunas’s pick, the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF (SCHG), rose 4.8% in the second quarter.Â. Blockchain provides the digital transfer and titling of property in a completely transparent and public manner. Even Medicare, the colossus of U.S. pharmaceutical buyers, probably can't negotiate prices more favorable than under current law without being forced to restrict access, as drug demand may rise. The largest, best-managed European lenders trade at record low valuations — yet their balance sheets are strong enough to absorb all but the most draconian of economic outcomes. Vietnam has gone from a position of strength to even greater strength as a participant in major regional trade deals. It has a fee of 0.49 percent. For the first time since the financial crisis, the dividend yield on large-cap stocks is now below the yield available on a 2-year Treasury note. It has a fee of 0.63%. Way to play it with ETFs: The iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) is Balchunas’s pick to get broad, market-cap weighted emerging market exposure. The fund is market-cap weighted, with 34% international exposure and an expense ratio of 0.47%. Companies that provide these services have sticky long-term annuity revenues, and the winners are expanding their profit margins as they add more sophisticated services. Ads can be annoying. It is evolving into digital transformation services, deploying artificial intelligence and automation, such as use of robot apps to automate processes and a virtual workforce. The fund has 18% exposure to non-U.S. companies. Top constituents are Skyworks Solutions, Analog Devices, Marvel Technology Group and Nokia Oyj. (Enterprise value includes debt and cash when calculating company value, rather than just multiplying a company’s shares outstanding by its share price to arrive at market capitalization; Ebitda, a cash flow measure, refers to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.) The magnitude of the discount looks odd given that EM economic data is improving relative to expectations. But pipeline squeezes don’t last long in the shale era; they incentivize midstream companies to accelerate new pipelines or expand existing capacity to fill the gap. When unrestricted, airlines will re-accelerate fleet-modernization programs, purchase new fuel-efficient aircraft and become more sophisticated at data analytics. We notice you're using an ad blocker. Another way to play it: Invest in employment, and get a piece of the action. Assuming they can innovate and maintain pricing power, large-cap pharmaceutical companies pay their shareholders to wait for new drug launches to propel growth. India’s 2016 real gross domestic product growth of 7.3 percent tops the charts, beating all major countries including China. How to play it with ETFs: There are no ETFs focused only on banks, so Balchunas highlights the iShares MSCI Europe Financials ETF (EUFN). EUFN will benefit if European banks retrace some of their 2020 losses, as Allianz SE, HSBC Holdings Plc and BNP Paribas SA are among top holdings. Fear will replace greed, rewarding more-defensive investments. Income-oriented investors should ponder the opportunities outside the U.S. In addition, Japanese equities offer accounting standards that are strict relative to the U.S., low leverage and the continuing tailwind of monetary accommodation. With Chinese growth slowing, euro-zone activity decelerating and global real money growth decelerating rapidly, global “peak growth” is probably behind us, making U.S. and global earnings forecasts liable to disappointment. For equity investors, such a backdrop will tend to keep financials under pressure and favors consumer staples and consumer service stocks. Find out where to watch every Academy Awards nominee. The second phase of market weakness should see investors price a deeper-for-longer demand shock as a rolling recession shifts from Asia into Europe and then the U.S., with global profits falling 30% to 50%. While value stocks are by definition cheaper than growth, today they are much, much cheaper. It may not yet be time to be in full defensive mode. [SAP and Samsung Electronics are CIVIX holdings.]. These companies, boasting strong balance sheets and modest levels of debt, typically have managements committed to a continuous and inexorable process of cost cutting and increased efficiency. However, since late June, things have started to improve. Despite the distance, Causeway has this populous country on our investment radar. Given this dynamic, investing in China seems like an odd call. Instead, focus on niche areas with long-term pricing power, such as rails and specialty chemicals. Another way to play the theme is to focus on areas where cyclical and secular growth intersect, such as semiconductors. Looking past the pandemic, the U.K.’s government is more growth-friendly than those headed by previous conservative prime ministers. While trade and the U.S. dollar remain real issues, these concerns already appear reflected in equity prices. Finally, the notion of EM equities assumes a homogenous asset. We favor U.S. Treasuries over other developed-market government bonds. Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: Balchunas chose the Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) as a way to play Koesterich’s China theme last quarter. They won’t all survive, even post-pandemic, as streamlined ghost kitchens take dining market share. After a torrid December, the first-quarter risk rally saw U.S. equities dominate global asset returns, with tech stocks and cyclicals leading the way. Way to play it with ETFs: To play emerging-market countries in Asia, investors could use the SPDR S&P Emerging Asia Pacific ETF (GMF), said Balchunas. As capital markets develop and expand, so will investment options. The Covid-19 recession has triggered unprecedented levels of policy interventions. As a result, fears of U.S. and global recession have receded. When one owns something, one will naturally be motivated to develop, improve and invest in it. If I had a $10,000 windfall, I would put it into an investment that is a leader in blockchain technology. I see much less downside risk today. The need for higher oil prices should also favor the oil majors. In the U.S., investor demand for high-dividend-yielding stocks, and exchange-traded funds that track such stocks, has risen sharply in our own prolonged low-interest-rate environment. Slower global growth and an inability of OPEC to maintain its supply discipline will likely see West Texas Intermediate crude prices closer to $65 than $75 by yearend. Lorenzana also added that the defense department leans towards Gripen as it believes the Swedish fighter is the cheapest and easiest to maintain, as well as proving to be an excellent fighter. In their report dated January 2017, Evercore ISI analysts Umer Raffat and Akash Tewari note that most of Medicare/Medicaid spending increases are due to higher enrollment, not because of pharmaceutical costs. It holds stocks such as Exxon Mobil, Chevron and BP, and has a little more than 20% of the fund in Europe. How to play it with ETFs: Balchunas says that while there is no European energy ETF (yet), the iShares Global Energy ETF (IXC) tracks oil majors from all over the world. Currently, the large-cap pharmaceuticals are trading at the lowest valuation relative to global markets in over 20 years. As a result, Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar have started to fall. These telecom stocks, unloved for their lack of recent growth and bland forecasts, have lost the interest of bull market investors. Mention Tencent or Alibaba and people will listen intently; refer to China Mobile or SK Telecom for yawns of boredom. Yet telecom behemoths offering mobile and fixed broadband services should grab our attention as ideal ballast for the inevitable bear markets. We need the services they offer—and will need them even more when fifth-generation wireless systems (5G) become commercially available. U.S. shale productivity continues to surprise on the upside, especially in the Permian Basin. While investors sometimes exaggerate the role of the dollar in emerging markets, a weaker dollar has generally been supportive of emerging markets assets. Its 12-month yield is 2.28% and the ETF has an expense ratio of 0.07%. Way to play it with ETFs: The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) is far and away the largest Japan ETF, at $17.4 billion in assets, said Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Balchunas. Over the past decade to March 31, the U.S. market has returned almost 16 percent annually on average, a generous result for a developed-markets index. This helped drive a financial shock as liquidity and earnings stress exposed fragility in money markets, equities and credit. We expect 10-year U.S. Treasuries to fall to 1%. This should lead to more productive factories and higher quality operations, not to mention better products. Assuming buyers will pay for efficacious drugs, then the prognosis for the more innovative pharmaceutical companies is good. We would also suggest gold as a good hedge against any dollar weakness or recession.Â. To be clear, this doesn’t mean that the U.S. will grow slower. We see three phases for markets to work through. The current technical bounce reflects hope of a V-shaped recovery in response to aggressive policy easing and hopes of stabilization in the virus. That’s the lowest since early 2016 and about on par with the trough valuation during the financial crisis. Comparing the yield to the three-month trailing volatility of the asset class, you get a ratio of more than 1.3. For investors under-invested in non-U.S. stocks, Europe is worth another look. In the U.S., rising interest rates will push up utility borrowing costs, and corporate tax reform won’t boost earnings if the tax benefit must be passed on to customers. After being written off as dead, value stocks have staged a comeback. While a “no deal” Brexit is not yet entirely removed as a risk, as we enter 2020 we believe it is of very low intensity and not a large impediment to the valuation opportunities in U.K. equities and the pound. Bonds can’t compete. Weakening growth and inflation suggest that U.S. 10-year Treasury yields could fall back below 1.5% this year. With recession fears weighing on cyclical stocks globally, this may provide an excellent opportunity to buy some of Europe’s best industrial automation companies at relatively low valuations versus U.S. peers. The country continues to deliver among the highest GDP outcomes, with our most recent growth estimates at 3% for 2020 and 7-8% for 2021. The Best PC Games for 2020 Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 1 + 2 is just one of 190 expert reviews in 16 categories. While we’re unlikely to be so fortunate in 2018, this is not the time to abandon stocks. Even better, the most battered of European bank stocks pay investors to be patient via generous dividends. It’s important to buy good equipment, practice regular testing and maintenance, and treat the fish like household pets. These are the best PC games you should play right now. Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: The Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR) and Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY) fell 23.3% and 19.2%, respectively, in the first quarter. Competitive, mature telecom markets typically cannot support more than three players, or returns on capital will decline for all participants. A bottle of 50-year Macallan lists for around $80,000. It has a fee of 0.40 percent. This benefits rate-sensitive and cyclical sectors, slow-growth currencies and global bond markets. The president will likely claim victory for something that is already happening. The sector also appears inexpensive compared with the price of oil. After an initial lag, Boris Johnson’s government has reversed its original stance and followed the same strict path as other European governments, significantly slowing transmission of the coronavirus. But momentum investing — or following an existing market trend — is likely to thrive, as it benefits from the policy reaction to volatility: more liquidity. It’s pretty big for a country fund, at $2.6 billion, and charges 0.47%. These compare with our expectations of minus 5 percent and plus 5 percent, respectively. Most momentum portfolios or funds are overweight industries that aren’t affected too much by short-term factors: technology and increasingly healthcare, specifically biotech. Even though the recovery may be muted, it can still be broad — nearly all purchasing manager index surveys (which measures manufacturing activity) published around the world in recent months have risen. In the pre-pandemic travel heyday, one business-class ticket cost $10,000, with the burden of change fees. Often the challenge is U.S. monetary policy. How to play it with ETFs: Balchunas says the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU) makes sense as a way to get unhedged (currency) exposure to U.K. equities. Its 0.47 percent fee is high for an ETF but below average for an ETF specializing in preferred stocks. The expected yield is 2.95% and the expense ratio is 0.50%. ( A drop in the effective tax rate of about six percentage points should have almost a one-to-one benefit to corporate earnings per share. It has heavy allocations to China, Taiwan and India, but also includes countries like Malaysia and Indonesia. Equity markets don’t typically deliver double-digit percentage annual returns each year for 10 consecutive years. The ETF offers international equity exposure to 100 securities with high free-cash-flow yields. Household demand, particularly for durable goods, has supported manufacturing. These are the PC games you should play right now. The bottom line: Europe has its challenges, but also some fairly consequential tailwinds. Emerging debt exposures offer better yields than many of their developed-market peers. Outside of the dollar, investors should be concerned about trade. Although this is bad for the economy, markets have had ample time to adjust. The recent demonetization to encourage a shift from cash to a digital (taxable) economy should ultimately fuel growth. These lead us to think there may once again be pressure to lower rates rates in the medium term, after it ebbed in the summer. Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) rose 15.5% in 2020’s final quarter. This dynamic helps explain the strong year-to-date rally in technology and other growth stocks. Whether due to the day-to-day vagaries of the trade war or longer-term concerns over growth and decoupling, China has been the most common source of investor angst. Portfolio manager, BlackRock Global Allocation Fund. Falling unemployment rates during the last six months in most of the Group of 20 biggest industrialized and emerging economies have helped boost consumer confidence, while low interest rates and stable inflation have encouraged consumers and corporations to reduce their savings and spend more. Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: Last quarter, the ETF that was the closest fit for Ketterer’s theme of investing in China’s health care demand was the Global X China Consumer ETF (CHIQ), which had about 8 percent of assets in the sector. Even after the recent rebound, the three-month rolling return for the U.S. energy sector as of Jan. 10 was -16 percent (excluding dividends), while the S&P 500 price return was -6 percent. Preferred Stock ETF (PFF) currently yields 5.6 percent and has great liquidity. Given this, our investment advice is very straightforward: Be as risk-averse with your $10,000 as you can. That’s akin to multiple shocks, and even after that nightmare, the banks would have twice the required capital. Energy stocks are also trading at historically depressed levels.Â. Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: The ETFs that Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted as possible ways to play Koesterich’s theme of scooping up bargains in Asia—the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ), Franklin FTSE Japan ETF (FLJP) and JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan ETF (BBJP)—all fell about 15 percent for the quarter.Â. In the U.S., the dividend yield on the S&P 500 is below 2 percent. They are herd animals and would be lonely without pals — there goes the whole $10,000! Ultimately, I view these friendly lamoids as an investment in our family’s values as we jointly care for them and learn from nonverbal interaction. If the local currencies gain against the U.S. dollar, investors holding local-currency denominated debt win. Its price rose nearly 9% in the fourth quarter. It, too, is super-liquid and also super-cheap, at 0.13 percent. Over the last number of years, the equity market story has been largely a story of rallies built on central bank policy. Poorly implemented, the demonetization has dragged on the country’s economy as the banking system could not meet the demands of cash distribution. In 2017’s final quarter, it gained 8.7 percent. To help contain the coronavirus, most commercial flights are grounded. But relative to expectations, European growth is coming in better than in the U.S. Utility stocks around the world have generally trailed their respective equity market performance over the past year. Thanks to low interest rates, not only is debt lower relative to income but the cost of servicing that debt is the lowest in decades. First, value is cheap. Electric utility regulators should allow the utilities to earn a healthy return on grid upgrades, new connections (such as new power lines to electrify parking bays), smart architecture, digitization and new peaking capacity. For the year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 3.6%, while tech stocks have gained about 26%. The U.S. ISM manufacturing index, the Institute for Supply Management’s measure of economic activity in that sector, and similar measures for the euro zone are close to 30-year highs. Banks, maligned in a period of falling interest rates, trade at near-crisis levels, especially European ones. However, Filipino officials said FA-50 jets were introduced as an interim solution pending raising funds to purchase superior-class fighter aircraft, deemed indispensable for the defense of the national airspace. Based on the trailing price-earnings ratio, the S&P 500 is trading at a 13 percent premium to other developed markets. The dynamic style of the Tissot T-Race Chronograph is inspired by bike races around the world. Following a stellar 2017, emerging-market equities are once again on the back foot. After the pandemic, a permanent shift to more-convenient telemedicine should mean more prescriptions will be filled. On a 12-month view, our tech caution favors value vs. growth, and we’d look for any short-term economic weakness as an opportunity to make that switch. Advanced economies are on the doorstep of a 5G (5th generation cellular wireless) era of connectivity. At this point, even a modest boost in near-term growth expectations is arguably enough to shift investor preferences. On businesses and harmed roughly half the population without a bank account 10-year 30-year. Libya, Nigeria and Mexico may get worse cyclicals and value Brazil fall! Thinking about adding cyclicals, but also includes countries like Malaysia and Indonesia companies with negative earnings in Philippines! 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