Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River, Arizona. As the drought continues and global warming evaporates water supplying the reservoirs, each reservoir isn't far from dead pool, which is when the water level is too low to flow downstream or power the turbines that provide hydroelectric power. In the desert of California lies another manmade lake condemned to death, the Salton Sea. The nations second-largest reservoir is strained by more than two decades of drought, and its water levels are slipping dangerously low. Lake Powell (credit: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation) The power pool mark is 3,490 feet of elevation. As of August 10, water levels were measured to be 3,534.51 feet above sea level. If the reservoir dips below 895 feet a possibility still years. Definitions explained. Colorado River tribes pose statewide leasing idea, Risks to Lake Mead, Colorado River intensifying greatly, federal officials say, Arizona basketball | Tommy Lloyd on the wild, fun nature of college hoops | Feb. 28, 2023, Millions at Risk of Slipping Into Poverty as COVID-Era SNAP Benefits Set to End, More than 300 words have been added to the English dictionary. Lake Powell generates power for about 5.8 million households and businesses in Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. According to the National Park Service, contaminants from the newly exposed shorelines are reentering warm, shallow areas and becoming more concentrated. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nation's largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. For terms of use and more information, visit our policies pages athttp://www.sciencefriday.com/about/policies/. If the water levels drop to levels below the intake pipes, the water flow will cease to turn the hydroelectric turbines, and the dam won't generate any power. I would say less than 20 percent, Ostler said. Below that is deadpool level, which is where no water flows out of the lake at all, which according to Gus Levy of the Bureau of Reclamation, may cause the Grand Canyon stretch of the Colorado River to run dry, reports 12News ABC. But Lake Powell's current water level is the lowest since it was first filled almost 60 years ago. This segment is part ofThe State of Science, a series featuring science stories from public radio stations across the United States. And thats really what were watching right now, is how low is Lake Mead going to go? Depending on how you define "dry up." It's doubtful that all 1,450 miles of the Colorado River will turn to dust, even if we drain Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the nation's two largest. LinkedIn sets this cookie to store performed actions on the website. On top of the hydropower the lake generates, its the source of drinking water for the 7,500 residents of Page, Az., and the 1,443 members of the LeChee chapter of the Navajo Nation. A water level of 3,490 feet is known as "minimum power pool." We'll assume you're okay with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Together, these reservoirs, fed by the mighty Colorado River, provide the water 40million Americans depend on. Climatologist Jon Meyer with the Utah Climate Center said the number that captures the severity for him is 12 inches. The . The cookie is a session cookies and is deleted when all the browser windows are closed. JOHN DANKOSKY: Yeah, so a lot of people, a lot of wildlife, and many, many jurisdictions, too. Big Water, Utah It's hard to believe a place as beautiful as Lake Powell is also a shadow of its former self. For the authoritative record of Science Fridays programming, please visit the original aired/published recording. Getty Images. At 3,370 feet, the reservoir hits. Arizona's environmental agency plans to legalize direct treatment of wastewater for drinking as soon as the end of this year. Water managers across the region are on the clock to come up with new rules for how to share Colorado River water before 2026, when the current guidelines expire. He and his wife have four cats, thousands of bees, and a yoga studio in the sleepy Northwest hills of Connecticut. Twitter sets this cookie to integrate and share features for social media and also store information about how the user uses the website, for tracking and targeting. This cookie is installed by Google Universal Analytics to restrain request rate and thus limit the collection of data on high traffic sites. If the outlet tubes cant meet the reservoirs needs, she said, the flow of water in the Grand Canyon itself could be reduced to a trickle. However, experts have warned such measures cannot be a long-term solution. It survives, she said. Falling water levels at Lake Mead and Lake Powell have been concerning for several years. But it plays a huge role in the Colorado River basin. This is very unpredictable and these are going to be difficult conversations in the coming years.. If the reservoir dips below 895 feet a possibility still years . KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage. The water levels in Lake Powell are dramatically lower than they were in 2021, which in turn were lower than they were in 2020. This cookie is used for storing country code selected from country selector. Lake Mead, which is fed by Lake Powell upstream, would likely be the first of the two reservoirs to hit dead-pool levels. Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better experience for the visitors. At this stage a significant amount of Glen Canyon . Subscribe to stay connected to Tucson. A dry spell like the one from 2000-2005 could have serious consequences for the lake. It does not store any personal data. But after more than two decades of drought it is now less than 1,050 feet the lowest since the lake was filled, and falling about a foot a week. Its depth level currently stands at around 3,530 feet. Much of the water from the river is used for irrigation and agricultural uses, but there are municipal users, as well. what little rain and snow has fallen dries . And what does that mean for the users on the river? The loss of generation from the lake would deprive the grid of about a quarter million households worth of power. And thats Lake Powell in southern Utah and Lake Mead, which is on the Nevada-Arizona border near Las Vegas. An official shortage declaration from the federal government could come as early as this year, as Lake Mead is currently projected to be below 1,075 feet in elevation at the end of 2021. The river carried an average of 14.7 million acre feet from 1906 through 2015. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". This story is part of ongoing coverage of the Colorado River, produced by KUNC with financial support from the Walton Family Foundation. And you know, thats way beyond any sort of voluntary conservation that Arizona has done up until this point. Kuhns analysis is the worst case, said Pat Tyrrell, Wyoming state engineer who has been involved in the Upper Basin water talks. People should definitely not feel like the agencies managing the Colorado River have it under control, he said. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. The answer is almost certainly, no, we're not at the bottom of impacts, said Zach Frankel, executive director of the Utah Rivers Council. If its dry there, that means many more problems as the water flows downstream. Air entering the system would also damage the generators. Lake Mead's decline is not happening in isolation, but is the result of a two-decade drought hitting the western U.S. and causing critical water shortages on the Colorado River. As of Thursday, Lake Mead was at 1,045.79 feet. The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional". Contact reporter Tony Davis at tdavis@tucson.com or 806-7746. Used to help protect the website against Cross-Site Request Forgery attacks. SiteLock sets this cookie to provide cloud-based website security services. NID cookie, set by Google, is used for advertising purposes; to limit the number of times the user sees an ad, to mute unwanted ads, and to measure the effectiveness of ads. "The federal government generally prefers to let the stakeholders work things through, Sorensen said. Northern Colorado Center for Investigative Reporting, Hydropower Worries Grow As Colorado River Reservoirs Keep Dropping, News brief with The Colorado Sun: The beauty and danger of skating on wild ice, LGBTQ+ youth are less likely to feel depressed with parental support, study says, 3 abortion bans in Texas leave doctors 'talking in code' to pregnant patients, Pandemic food assistance that held back hunger comes to an end. Lake Oroville (of the enormous spillway failure fame) and Lake Shasta, two of California's largest reservoirs, are at critical levels. LinkedIn sets this cookie for LinkedIn Ads ID syncing. In an average year, Lake Powell gets enough water that it can release a bit more 8.23 million acre-feet a year. Because of that, the spring and early summer will bring a temporary boost to water levels while snow runs into rivers and eventually flows into Lake Powell. In . The JSESSIONID cookie is used by New Relic to store a session identifier so that New Relic can monitor session counts for an application. This cookie is managed by Amazon Web Services and is used for load balancing. Both reservoirs still need to drop several hundred feet before they are considered to be at dead-pool levels. Lake Powell upstream of Lake Mead on the Colorado River is at its lowest level on record. Riparian rights do not entitle a water use to divert water to storage in a reservoir for use in the dry season or to use water on . Hes a reporter at KUNC, based in Fort Collins, Colorado. 40 fun events happening in Tucson this weekend Feb. 23-26 , Opinion: Help protect Lake Mead and Colorado River water, Colorado River runoff forecast keeps dropping, Warm weather reducing Colorado River runoff, study finds, Feds back off from Lake Mead water demand, Businesses, residents paid to save water in this Arizona valley, Tucson to leave nearly 20% of its CAP water in Lake Mead, 'Toilet to tap' water treatment will soon be legal in Arizona, officials say, Big snowstorms put Colorado River drought plan on ice, Colorado River tops group's 'endangered' list again, CAP-California water deal that Arizona nixed provokes ongoing conflict, Water bailout? As snowpack runoff disappeared into dry ground instead of hitting the reservoirs, engineers calculated a 79% chance Lake Powell will fall below its minimum target water height of 3,525 feet above sea level next year. Back-to-back dry years years with below-average runoff have left little water in Lake Mead and Lake Powell, a reservoir upstream. Credit: Alex Hager. So the upper watershed, you have the headwater states. DeSantis says he insisted on no Disney characters at his Disney World FBI director says origin of COVID-19 pandemic most likely a lab 10 key figures who will and wont be at CPAC, What Bidens FHA mortgage fee cut means for buyers, Watch live: White House monkeypox response team holds briefing, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. The state already is on the edge of shortages for its $4 billion Central Arizona Project. Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Homicide. Regardless of what they decide, theyre dealing with a steadily diminishing supply. At full capacity, Lake Powell holds enough water to flood the entire state of Kentucky a foot deep. "The West might look different," said Hasencamp. More. At Lake Mead's current capacity, one foot of elevation in the lake equals 85,000 acre-feet. Page mayor: Lake Powell is not drying up. Follow me on Substack: https://geographybygeoff.substack.com/Follow me on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/geographic_geoff/Listen to the podcast: https:. Lake Powell is in crisis. What would constitute that? If levels dropped below 3,490 feet, there wouldnt be enough water flowing through Glen Canyon Dams turbines to generate power. Theres an increasing body of work that I would say puts climate changes fingerprints on this megadrought. In coming years, it's going to get worse and worse and worse.. The Nature Conservancy receives some funding from the Walton Family Foundation, which also provides funding to KUNC for reporting on the Colorado River. Its also in the groundwater, something that you cant see. LUKE RUNYON: Sure, so much of the attention in the basin goes towards the rivers largest reservoirs, which also happen to be the biggest reservoirs in the entire United States. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance". I mean, what sort of disputes are coming to the forefront because of this? Lake Mead, which is fed by Lake Powell upstream, would likely be the first of the two reservoirs to hit dead-pool levels. Today, the lake has about 13 million acre-feet left, said Eric Kuhn, general manager of the Colorado River Water Conservation District, which is helping to oversee the study. Officials managing the effort say computer models show that taking these steps would reduce the risk of catastrophically low levels to near zero. The lake isn't low enough yet to cause concerns about getting water out, but any hope of it refilling is years away, if ever, due to lowered rain and snow and increasing evaporation. "You might not see the lush lawns of today and endless fields of alfalfa, but you will see thriving communities and agricultural regions. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics". And how can certain policy agreements, policy negotiations, be structured in order to allow tribal nations to come to the table and negotiate for future policies? Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. Lake Mead and Lake Powell, for water. Both reservoirs have troublingly low water levels at 1,054.79 and 3,524.22 feet above sea level, respectively. Those cutbacks are likely to grow steeper in 2021. AWSALB is an application load balancer cookie set by Amazon Web Services to map the session to the target. LUKE RUNYON: Well, this is kind of a narrative or storyline in the basin that has gotten a lot more attention recently, is how have tribal users been excluded from agreements in the past? Luke Runyon is the water reporter at KUNC in Greeley, Colorado. "I've been here since 2007 and obviously this is way lower than I've ever seen it.". Thousands of Tucson homes use 250% more water than you. This cookie, set by YouTube, registers a unique ID to store data on what videos from YouTube the user has seen. Thats about the amount of water that our soils are behind in terms of what they normally would have, Meyer said. And thats left Lake Powell at 34% of its capacity. Even hardy desert plants, the ones well-adapted to water scarcity, have struggled. The lake was just under 24 percent full as of last week, and had lost 16 feet in the last year. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. JOHN DANKOSKY: So you know, with so many stories like this, we say, this is probably due to climate change. And as we warm even further, it makes it that much harder for our infrastructure, our water storage, to recover. At its height, the lake surface sits over 1,200 feet (365 meters) above sea level. This cookie is used to manage the interaction with the online bots. You cant go into a drought like that today if its half full. Balken surmises the jugs were tied to the trees back when Lake Powell just covered their upper branches to warn boaters of the hazard beneath the surface. In the abstract, people seem to think that hydropower can be compensated from other sources, [but] in practical terms, no one really seems to have that figured out, said Mankin, who co-wrote the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Drought Task Forces annual report in 2021. Its not just like, you get a miracle year and youre out of it. The big question is how water managers will divvy up a shrinking supply to feed a growing region. So when Lake Mead declines, certain policy triggers are put in place. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. 1. a study published in the journal Science said the current dry period in the Southwest is one for the record books, and that its "megadrought-like trajectory" is fueled by natural variability superimposed on . Many of the. This drought will only be exacerbated by climate change, as the increased global temperatures are expected to increase the severity of drought weather and frequencies of wildfires, as well as influencing a vast range of other extreme weather events. JOHN DANKOSKY: When you use the term megadrought, that sounds like a newer term. On Sunday afternoon, boaters spending a day at the lake stumbled upon a barrel and were able to see that it had human remains in it, according to CNN. We're most likely witnessing the end of this reservoir. 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved. Issued by Microsoft's ASP.NET Application, this cookie stores session data during a user's website visit. water level is too low to flow downstream, Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. On the contrary, he said, its actually become this locus of huge uncertainty, which doesnt allow downstream users to make effective plans, because they dont know what their allocations are going to be. The vast stripe rimming Powell is a testament to how far its level has dropped since 2000, when the Colorado's flows began a steady decline in response to persistent drought, warming temperatures. The river is a lifeline, providing water to more than . But a new study warns that the lake could virtually dry up in as few as six years if the region gets a repeat of the dry spell it experienced from 2000 to 2005. Science Friday transcripts are produced on a tight deadline by 3Play Media. The southwestern US has been dealing with drought conditions for years, and thats had a big impact on the Colorado River basin. At full pool, Powell's water line lies 3,700 feet above sea level, and at 3,370 feet, it will reach deadpool levels. For context, on the scale of no drought to worst drought, theres no category that captures conditions more dry than exceptional. And its easy to put them off if you get a wet year. Shes a big fan of stories related to strange animal facts and dystopian technology. And its staring down the possibility of losing access to a third or more of its water in the next year. A load balancing cookie set to ensure requests by a client are sent to the same origin server. Dry conditions are the worst theyve been in almost 20 years across the Colorado River watershed, which acts as the drinking and irrigation water supply for 40 million people in the American Southwest. Frankel criticizes water managers for their inaction in the face of those trends. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. The Glen Canyon Dam forms Lake Powell and the Hoover Dam forms Lake Mead. Given todays changing climate, led by continued warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions, any knowledge we have of the past that historically would help us make predictions does not help us any more, Udall said. Glen Canyon Dam can release water below minimum power pool through bypass jets until an elevation of 3,370 feet, which is then the top of dead pool and no further water can be released. Water levels have been getting lower and lower, and for the first time ever, a shortage seems almost certain. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Lake Powell is in crisis. Lake Powell is facing such a high degree of risk that federal water managers recommended taking emergency action to hold additional water in Lake Powell, an action all seven states in the Colorado River Basin . The droughts that we are seeing are becoming that much more severe because of the temperature component, theyre warmer, Bolinger said. Because the deficit is so substantial, Meyer said its very likely the watershed will see drought conditions persist in 2021. 30 Broad Street, Suite 801 The water level on Lake Powell is 100 feet from its high mark in August 2013. Secondly, Phoenix does not get it's water from Lake Powell. If the reservoirs reach dead-pool levels, more than a million people using the electricity could be required to find new power sources. Officials say the lowest level at which Glen Canyon Dam can . The D4 category is something that is only supposed to be designated when youre seeing conditions that are so extreme theyre only happening once every 50 to once every 100 years, said Becky Bolinger, Colorados assistant state climatologist. The U.S. Department of the Interior is considering a plan to keep extra water in Lake Powell. The wells that now supply Tucson are at 400 - 500 feet under the surface. The river basin is governed bya centuries-old agreement that allocates more water than flows through the river, and the federal Bureau of Reclamation has called on states to reduce water use by 2 million to 4 million acre-feet. LUKE RUNYON: Well, I dont have a crystal ball. But Phoenix will store a good deal of its Colorado River supply down here, in exchange for having access to some of Tucson's supply during shortages. If you do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and will not be able to monitor its performance. A patchwork of other measures has been deployed throughout the Colorado River basin throughout the past few years, as drought and demand keep sapping reservoirs. Thanks so much for joining us. Welcome back to Science Friday, Luke. And youre able to say, oh, the rivers high, or the river is low. Powell is not drying out in a vacuum.. The water in Lake Powell is low because the amount of water in the Colorado River has been falling for decades. And so this creates a lot of potential problems downstream in the Grand Canyon, it creates management problems for the reservoir itself in Glen Canyon, and most importantly, it jeopardizes the upper[Colorado River]basins ability to meet its delivery obligation downstream, Balken said. The Lower Basin fares worse, with 93% of the land area in those categories. What happens if Lake Powell runs out of water? In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. In addition, Mankin said, interventions like the Flaming Gorge release treat the western U.S.s 20-year drought as a localized phenomenon rather than a regional one. All rights reserved. Weve seen records set when it comes to dwindling soil moisture. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience. The challenges are really hard, Fleck said. Here are five facts about the situation at Lake Mead and what needs to be done to address the urgency of water scarcity for future generations: At full volume, Lake Mead and Lake Powell had. Its also headed toward a record low later this year. What we're seeing now is almost a scenario in which some form of 'fill Mead first' could happen by default in as little as six years." Between the drought years of 2000-2005, Lake Powell lost 13 . Udall questioned the validity of using the years before 2000 because the years 1990 to 1999 were very wet and not representative of the weather we see now. 84% Of Upper Basin In Extreme To Exceptional Drought This is the highest percentage of land in the river's Upper Basin since 2002, which stands as the region's driest year on record. 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If the lakes levels drop below 3,490, Hawes added, the Bureau of Reclamation will have to run water through a series of river outlet tubes, the lowest delivery mechanism in the lake, for the first time since the 1980s, and bureau officials dont actually know if they can handle that much water, she said. "We can make up energy through fossil fuels, but if we fall short on water, we have to restrict supply because there are little to no replacements," he said. Northern Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates the lake, has a full capacity of 1,320 megawatts, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. They both use water from the Colorado River. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The studys computer models didnt factor in rising temperatures expected in this region due to climate change. At its highest, in 1983, the lake was 3,708 feet above sea level. In addition to the power the lake generates directly, it is a major source of grid resilience when full, serving as a quick backup source in cases where solar or wind power cant meet demand. And it would increase the likelihood of cutbacks in river water deliveries to Arizona, in particular. This website uses cookies to improve your experience. Both Utah and Nevada experienced their driest years on record in 2020. And theres already a supply-demand imbalance on the Colorado River, and the supply is shrinking faster than officials are able to shrink the demands that we have on the river. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. Arizona, in particular on what videos from YouTube the user consent for the authoritative record Science... That today if its half full were measured to be 3,534.51 feet above sea level the River at. Policy triggers are put in place agricultural uses what happens if lake powell dries up but you can opt-out if wish... 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Concerning for several years follow me on Substack: https: //geographybygeoff.substack.com/Follow me on Instagram: https: //geographybygeoff.substack.com/Follow on! Enough water that our soils are behind in terms of use and more,! Find New power sources crystal ball its not just like, you have the headwater States in! Pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the.... Severe because of this reservoir temperature component, theyre warmer, Bolinger said windows are.! Scale of no drought to worst drought, and for the cookies in the face those... To help protect the website a series featuring Science stories from public radio stations across the States..., thousands of bees, and had lost 16 feet in the coming years 85,000 acre-feet a session identifier that... Is 12 inches supply Tucson are at 400 - 500 feet under the surface currently at. 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